Rumors circulating last year that China would finally be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027, previously spread mainly by various military experts, have received official confirmation. As US Navy Admiral John Aquilino recently said in a report to the House Armed Services Committee, China is building up its military on a “scale not seen since World War II” and is poised to invade Taiwan by 2027. Until recently, everyone said that any time of the invasion, as well as its likelihood itself, were highly speculative. When a person of Aquilino’s level names specific dates, it’s time to get really scared and think about the future. US Navy Admiral John Aquilino. © Civilbeat.org China’s rapid military buildup is greater now than at any time since World War II, he said, meaning China is on track to achieve its goal of being ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. John Aquilino is a retired US Navy admiral who has led the US Indo-Pacific Command since April 2021. He previously served as Commander of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and prior to that, Commander of the U.S. Fifth Fleet and the Combined Maritime Forces. In short, Aquilino is exactly the person who knows everything or almost everything about the actions and capabilities of the Chinese armed forces in this region, and certainly more than Washington politicians. The Admiral’s Prophecy The Admiral indicates that China still does not exclude the hypothetical possibility of Taiwan’s voluntary return to its “home port.” But, according to him, Beijing understands perfectly well that this can happen at about the same time when cancer is whistling on the mountain, and that is why they are calmly and measuredly preparing for a military operation. “All indications are that at the PLA meeting, President Xi Jinping gave instructions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027… Moreover, the PLA’s actions indicate their ability to meet the deadline set by Xi Jinping for the strong unification of Taiwan with mainland China,” if ordered,” says the admiral’s report. PLA. © flickr.com It must be admitted that Aquilino is not alone in his “prophecies.” Obviously, the gift of foresight comes to everyone who is in the chair of the American commander in the Indo-Pacific region. John Aquilino’s prediction strikingly coincides with the timeline of events voiced by his predecessor, Admiral (now retired) Philip Davidson. He, along with other representatives of the American command, also claimed that China will be ready to invade Taiwan. and precisely until 2027. China is gaining “muscle mass.” As Aquilino’s report notes, the United States has three potential challenges in the Indo-Pacific: China, Russia and North Korea. However, China is “the only country that has “On a scale not seen since World War II, the PLA (People’s Liberation Army) is building up its forces on land, sea, air, space, cyberspace and in the information sphere,” – states the admiral. Over the past three years, the Chinese military has added more than 400 fighter jets and 20 warships to its arsenal, and doubled its missile stockpile, Aquilino said. During this period, Beijing increased the number of military satellites in orbit by 50% and doubled its arsenal of nuclear warheads. Given all this, Aquilino called on the US to strengthen its military presence, saying that threats in the Indo-Pacific region continue to “grow and accelerate.” According to him, the Pentagon should hurry up and place systems for destroying hypersonic and cruise missiles on Guam. Moreover, this must be done before 2027, and not earlier than 2029, as previously assumed. Why does Xi Jinping need war? © Lev Bubnov/Collage/ridus.ru Perhaps this is one of the main and burning questions today. It is generally accepted that Beijing’s attempt to drive Taiwan into its “home port” will inevitably lead to a struggle with the United States and, with a high probability, to a third world war. There is no clear answer to this question, since the development of the situation is influenced by many different and constantly changing factors. The real smell of gunpowder began only after Xi Jinping broke the Chinese political system that had developed during the time of Deng Xiaoping, effectively declaring himself the new emperor of the Celestial Empire. In doing so, Xi Jinping slaughtered the goose that laid the golden eggs that once made China a leading world power. Deng Xiaoping. It took the new emperor only a few years for the highly successful development model to be broken, and the existing economic and social problems to turn into a cancerous tumor. Beijing’s increased focus on national security has led to tighter restrictions, sparking public discontent. The country’s economy continues to slow down. The birth rate is declining, as is the number of marriages. An attempt to correct the situation by slightly easing restrictions did not lead to success. All this puts Xi Jinping in a hopeless situation, since the old system that led China to prosperity cannot survive in the changed conditions. At the same time, the “empire” he is building does not allow him to return to the previous successful model. This situation is not uncommon in human history. Like thousands of years ago, it pushes the “emperor” first to militarization and then to war. Its ideological justification is almost ready. Xi Jinping openly demonstrates China’s claims to dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, and then to dominance over the so-called Global South. Achieving these goals will allow Beijing to solve both external and internal problems for a long time, regardless of what happens to the economy and demographics. The main obstacle to the implementation of all this remains the United States, which for some reason still considers itself to be “controlling” the Indo-Pacific region. The stakes are more than high, and this is the most important reason for a very likely war. Catfight © Lev Bubnov / Collage /ridus.ru However, as often happens, everything went smoothly on paper. Today there is no doubt that Beijing will not give up its goals of annexing Taiwan. It is also quite clear that the island alone will not be able to defend its independence. About 40 years ago, small but strong-willed Vietnam managed to repel the invasion of the great China, but today the balance of power is no longer the same, and Taiwan itself has little hope of confronting Beijing. Here the main geopolitical question of our time arises: if there is no doubt that China still intends to “squeeze” Taiwan, is this compatible with Washington Island? It would seem that there is no point in asking such a question if the United States has made it clear that they will tear anyone for the island. They would not “break” it, since Taiwan’s transition to the embrace of mainland China would mean a quick and rather shameful withdrawal of the United States from the entire region. America has been no stranger to shameful phenomena of all kinds lately; just remember their recent escape from Afghanistan. However, the Indo-Pacific region is not useless Afghan mountains, but a symbol of global dominance, the loss of which would be a real disaster for the United States. Therefore, if China tries to annex Taiwan by force, there is simply no way for the United States not to join the island. This is where the fun begins – two nuclear powers froze in front of each other, like two cats ready to fight. Despite their menacing appearance, both experience very contradictory feelings: what if I’m weaker; if I resign, my path to this court will be closed; If I manage to kick his ass now, the whole yard will be mine; how scary it is; no, I will not resign, and he knows it; we continue to stand nose to nose and yell – what if his nerves give out first; But my nerves can also fail me; come what may… Who will retire? Taiwan.© flickr.com So should we expect a Chinese attack on Taiwan in 2027 or some other time? If you follow purely logical arguments, then absolutely yes: Xi Jinping has done everything to ensure that he does not have a safe path of deviation. After the last elections in Taiwan, there is no longer any reason to believe that the island will surrender, which means we will have to fight. Beijing is well aware that the forceful annexation of the island, which most likely will not be difficult even for the PLA, which has not fought for a very long time, will most likely result in a war with the United States. And here everything will develop the same way as in the situation with cats. A battle seems inevitable when its outcome and consequences are completely unclear, which means that the likelihood that the enemy will jump out at the last moment is still not zero. Could China Jump Out? In my current mood this is unlikely. However, now, as we know, he is not ready for war and what will happen before the conditional 2027 is unknown. The political structure of China is a rather complex and contradictory organism. It is worth remembering that several years ago rumors spread around the world about a coup d’etat in China and the removal of Xi Jinping. The rumor was not confirmed, but the sediment remained. Hence the conclusion: under Xi it will not jump, but in other conditions – who knows, we all walk under God. Can the US bail out? Given the current situation and the current president, this is quite possible. The flight from Afghanistan and the virtual refusal of full assistance to Ukraine indicate that preserving the domestic political and electoral base for the Democrats is more important than the country’s international role. At least at the current stage of political development. Democrats now much more need the votes of immigrants (including the Chinese) and a left-wing cosmopolitan public that is not in the mood for war abroad. However (bad luck!) there is a 70-80% chance that next year there will be a completely different government in the White House, with completely different outlooks on life and a completely different base public. Here, the threat to Taiwan is already perceived as a threat to America and its role in the global world. The Republican public is not particularly enthusiastic about the possibility of the United States losing its hegemonic role in this crucial region and moving towards the so-called Global South. And this is a direct argument in favor of the fact that the United States will “sign up” to Taiwan in full, despite the unclear consequences. Is victory possible? US Army © flickr.com We deliberately pose the question this way, since the prospects for a military clash between two nuclear powers are unpredictable. Today this is a problem with many unknowns, and a clear and unambiguous solution is not yet in sight. At present, we can say that advantage will be given to the one who can gather around him the largest number of supporters, both in number and in weight and strength. Here the Global West has a common advantage with its well-established connections both ideologically, politically and in military-economic terms. The Global South, by contrast, has no advantage. This education itself still exists only in the minds and aspirations of some politicians. In fact, the countries of this “bloc” are divided not only by oceans, currencies and economic differences, but also by severe political contradictions, such as relations between China and India. In this situation, China’s chances of winning the conflict with the United States over Taiwan are close to zero. Does Beijing understand this? Absolutely yes. And therefore, they make it clear in every possible way that all radical decisions are unconditional, but are postponed for a time during which something will definitely change. The parties have clearly driven themselves into a dead end, from which there is simply no way out today. At the same time, they are ready to wait in the hope that one day the enemy’s nerves will break… or the economy, or something else.
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