Forecasters cannot give accurate forecasts for next summer, but there is scientific evidence to suggest that it will be hot Source: Elena Latypova / NGS55.RU Last winter in Moscow was unusually snowy and sometimes abnormally cold. Speaking of next summer, forecasters are already suggesting that it could be record hot. Is global warming real and is man to blame for the melting of Arctic ice? Our colleagues from MSK1.RU asked these questions to climatologist, candidate of sciences, leading researcher at the Main Geophysical Observatory named after Voeikov Andrey Kiselev. – Let’s start – what will it be like this summer? Is it possible to say with confidence now that the heat is in store for us? – No, we cannot say this for sure. In fact, no one yet knows exactly what the summer will be like. Forecasters in our latitudes can predict the weather for a maximum of 15 days, and truly reliable forecasts are given only a few days in advance. And yet there are statistics that allow us to make long-term forecasts. For example, temperatures are higher on average during El Niño years, according to data collected over the last 70 years. The reverse process, when it becomes colder than usual at about the same temperature, is called La Niña. These terms translate from Spanish as “boy” and “girl” respectively (the name was originally associated with the name of the Christ child, since the apparition often occurs in December, closer to Catholic Christmas). El Niño and La Niña occur every 2-7 years and affect the climate in different parts of the Earth. Before this, there was a strong El Niño, for example in 2016, when temperatures were then above average. El Niño can last for several years, with the second year of the event considered the hottest. 2024 is the second year of El Niño, hence the forecast for a record hot summer. But this does not mean that the predictions will definitely come true. In the atmosphere, in addition to ordered and predictable phenomena, many chaotic processes occur. — What does this year tell us about global climate change? Too cold winter, too hot summer – is there anything unusual about this? – If we talk about the average annual temperature, it continues to rise continuously. The same temperature record in 2016 was 1.2 degrees higher than the average temperature in the pre-industrial period (before the beginning of the 20th century). Last year, according to various estimates, these figures exceeded by 1.3 degrees. “Some may think 1.3 degrees is a small difference, but it actually makes a big difference.” Andrey Kiselev, climatologist The higher the temperature, the faster the ice at the poles melts, the permafrost thaws, which, by the way, covers 2/3 of the territory of our country. — That is, global warming is not a panic yet. myth and speculation, as many people think, but reality? – There are more than 10,000 weather stations around the world that measure temperature. The data from them shows that the Earth is indeed becoming warmer from year to year. And this is an unprecedented rate of temperature increase; this has never happened in any era of human existence. – How serious is human influence on the climate? Are we really destroying our planet? The factors that determine climate can be analyzed using climate models developed by scientists. They are not perfect, but we do not have a more accurate tool. So, certain parameters are included in these models, and calculations show that indeed people, through their activities, significantly influence the climate.” First, we are talking about greenhouse gases that are released into the atmosphere by industrial plants that burn fossil fuels. Andrey Kiselev, climatologist – It’s just an opinion that the warming we are currently experiencing is part of the natural climate cycle. The Earth warms and cools, alternating between ice ages and periods of warming. Is not it? – Good question, but we are talking about different things here. The main difference is the time periods we are talking about. Indeed, our planet has experienced ice ages, several of them, judging by the data we have. But in this case we are talking about tens and hundreds of thousands of years, during which the climate on Earth gradually changed.” The current changes are happening too quickly, it’s not even millennia, it’s centuries, or even decades. Andrey Kiselev, climatologist This is why we are still talking about various processes. In one case, the natural cycle was extended over time. In the other, there is the obvious human influence on climatic conditions.
What will the weather be like in the summer of 2024 in Russia, climatologist – about global warming, abnormal temperatures, causes of climate change and El Niño – March 1, 2024
0 комментариев