Many years ago, Doug Casey mentioned in a letter to me: “Empires are collapsing at an alarming rate.” Every now and then you receive a comment that, although fleeting, has a lasting impact because it offers unusual insight. For me, this was one of those books and I have kept it on my desk as a reminder ever since. I come from a British family who left Britain just as the British Empire began to decline. They emigrated to the “New World” in search of prospects for the future. Having spent most of my life in the British colony of the Cayman Islands, I had the opportunity to observe many British contract specialists leaving the UK in search of career advancement, which they almost always found in the Caymans. Interestingly, however, most of them returned to the UK after one or two contracts, believing that the UK would recover from its decline, and they wanted to be on board when the UK “came back”. This, of course, never happened. The United States replaced Great Britain as the world’s leading empire, and although Britain had its ups and downs in the decades that followed, it never regained its former glory. And that will never happen. If we look at world empires that have existed for thousands of years, we see a consistent history of decay without renewal. Whether we look at the Roman Empire, the Ottoman Empire, the Spanish Empire, or any other empire that has ever existed, history is remarkably consistent: the decline of any empire can never be reversed, and no empire comes back after its fall. But how important is this for us today? Well, today America is the undisputed leading empire of the world, and most Americans would agree that although it has fallen on hard times, it will bounce back and perhaps even be better than ever. I’m afraid this is not the case. All empires follow the same cycle. They start with a population that has a strong work ethic and self-confidence. These people come together to form a powerful nation based on high productivity. This leads to expansion, usually based on global business. Sometimes this results in leaders who seek not to work in partnership with other countries but to dominate them, and of course this is when a great nation becomes an empire. The United States began this phase under the flamboyant and aggressive Teddy Roosevelt. The twentieth century was the century of America, and America went from victory to victory, expanding its power. But the decline began in the 1960s, when America began fighting unwinnable wars, began destroying its currency, and began turning its government into an all-powerful organization. However, this process tends to be lengthy, with complete decline often taking decades. So how does this fit with the quote “Empires are collapsing at an alarming rate”? Well, the rise to fall can often be seen over a generation or more, but the fall itself usually happens quite quickly. What happens is very similar to what happens to a school bully. The bully has a slow growth rate due to his strength and tendency to be aggressive. After a series of successful battles, he is first revered and then feared. He then hires several sycophants who lack his skills but want a piece of the loot, so they do his bidding by acting threateningly towards other schoolchildren. After this, the bully begins to be hated. No one tells him this, but the other kids secretly dream of him losing, hopefully in a shameful way. Then, at some point, some boy, with a certain strength and the necessary determination that he is already tired of, attacks the bully. If he defeats him, a curious thing will happen. The sycophants suddenly realize that the game is over and head for the mountains, knowing that their source of power has dried up. Moreover, after the defeated bully falls, all the anger, fear and hatred that his classmates felt towards him comes out and they feel great joy at his defeat. This, in a nutshell, is what happens to empires. A nation that comes to the rescue in difficult times (such as during two world wars) is respected. But once that nation becomes a bully that uses any excuse to invade countries like Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq and Syria, its allies may continue to adore it but secretly fear it and want it to fail. When the empire begins to look for other countries to bully, such as Iran and Venezuela, its allies again say nothing but react with fear when they see John Bolton and Mike Pompeo beating war drums and making reckless comments. Currently, the US is focused mainly on economic warfare, but if this does not force the world to submit to its rule, the US has repeatedly warned of possible military aggression, that “no option is excluded.” The US has reached a classic stage where it has become reckless bullies, and as a result the support structure of its allies has begun to disintegrate. At the same time, as the allies begin to retreat and make other plans for their future, those citizens of the empire who are usually the creators of prosperity also begin to look for greener pastures. History has seen this happen countless times. There is a “brain drain” in which the best and most productive people begin to look for their future elsewhere. Just as the most productive Europeans crossed the Ocean to colonize the United States when it was a new, promising country, their current counterparts began to move abroad. The United States is currently in a state of suspended animation. They still seem to be a major force, but their base is slowly disappearing. At some point in the near future, it is likely that the US government will overestimate its strength and begin aggression against an enemy that is either stronger or has alliances that together will make it stronger. The United States will enter the war the moment it is destroyed, and this will become apparent suddenly and dramatically. The final decline will occur at an alarming rate. When this happens, most Americans will hope in vain that events will reverse. They will be inclined to hope that if they collectively say, “Oh, we failed,” the world will forgive them and restore them to their former glory. But historically this has never happened. Empires are collapsing at an alarming rate because the support systems that made them possible have ceased to exist and are being rebuilt elsewhere. Instead of mourning the impending loss of empire, we would be better off focusing on those parts of the world that are likely to benefit from this inevitability. Mike1975https://internationalman.comhttps://aftershock.news
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