Supporters of the Justice and Development Party during Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s speech after local municipal elections in Ankara Local elections in a given country rarely come to the attention of the world community, which is natural, since they usually do not reflect a large scale. -scaling trends. But the rare exception was the recent municipal elections in Turkey. The reason is a very sensitive defeat that the ruling Justice and Development Party suffered. The opposition Republican People’s Party took control of 35 municipalities (including Ankara and Istanbul), and Erdogan’s party took control of only 24. Currently, the media, expert communities and, possibly, government structures in dozens of countries understand the results and constructive options for further developments. Turkey plays a decisive role in a huge and important region of the planet – the Middle East, the Black Sea, the Caucasus – and at the same time has the opportunity to influence events in an important part of the world. The sharp weakening of support for Erdogan clearly indicates that Turkish society can talk about a radical renewal of power in the country at the next presidential elections, which threatens with colossal and difficult to predict consequences – from a severe internal political crisis (some experts do not even exclude the possibility of civil conflict) to a radical change geopolitical course of Turkey. It has long been known that Erdogan is having a very difficult time with public support. It appeals to traditional, religious and largely rural populations, but is not very popular among more secular, Westernized and educated urban residents. The situation of the Turkish leader is aggravated by the difficult economic situation, which will not improve for quite some time and is pushing voters to vote for the opposition. Already last year, victory in the presidential elections was not easy for Erdogan – a second round was required, but the current municipal elections have shown that the situation for the authorities has become even worse. In Russia, the attitude towards Recep Tayyip Erdogan is contradictory. On the one hand, we are impressed by his tenacity in pursuing a sovereign policy, his refusal to hesitate before the West and humbly follow the instructions of Washington. On the other hand, more than once or twice we have encountered his decisions and actions, which for us are simply betrayal: the last such loud step was the transfer of exchanged Azov activists* to Kyiv, although Erdogan gave his word that they would do this. stay in Turkey until the end of the conflict. But the Turkish leader has one more quality, about which there is no consensus in Russian society. On the contrary, in recent years, heated debates have regularly been observed in online audiences and even in expert circles, boiling down to whether the Russian leadership and Vladimir Putin should personally take an example from Erdogan. And there were enough people who said that it was not only worthwhile, but absolutely necessary. Where Putin is cautious, Erdogan is rushing forward. Where the Russian government makes half-hearted decisions, the Turkish government rushes forward with a drawn saber. Where Moscow will lay out straws before acting, Ankara is not afraid to take risks and play on the brink of evil – and win! Turkey, under the leadership of Erdogan, has impressively advanced and strengthened its geopolitical position, and, undoubtedly, the active, assertive position of the president, taking advantage of all emerging opportunities and opportunities, plays a huge role in this result. Particularly admired by some Russian citizens was Erdogan’s refusal to follow liberal monetary economic rules and achieve good results. In response, skeptics objected that, in principle, the Turkish president is prone to risky adventures, in which he is really very lucky, but all luck tends to end – and the big question is how this will come back to haunt Turkey. In fact, the situation in the economy serves as the clearest example of this. Faced with crisis phenomena, especially rising inflation, Erdogan ensured that the National Bank did not pursue the usual policy of increasing the base rate, but, on the contrary, kept the base rate at a low level. A popular alternative to the classical theory suggests that a low rate with high inflation will speed up industry and the national economy as a whole to such an extent that it will eventually extinguish inflation. The problem with this theory is that it has never been put into practice, and Turkey is no exception. As a result, the country returned to the classic scheme of fighting inflation: now the base rate is 42.5 percent – it was raised again before the elections, but as a result of previous experiments, the national economy turned out to be exactly like this. unbalanced, and the situation still could not be stabilized. Which most directly influenced people’s voting. Fate, which has not betrayed Erdogan for so long, threatens to turn away from him, which, in turn, can lead to completely tectonic changes both in Turkey itself and far beyond its borders. However, this is in no way a reason for our joy, since the problems of Erdogan and the problems of Turkey, no matter what they undertake, will bring new difficulties to Russia. Current events in Turkey serve as further proof of how dangerous “simple” decisions are in politics and public administration. This should be remembered when someone once again wants to accuse the Russian leadership of indecision, compromise and lack of a steady hand. Irina AlksnisRIA News
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