The delayed effect of sanctions is growing alarmingly – this is no longer a reason to laugh. Turn off your emotions, turn on your mind Posting in CHAT: Russia I listened to Putin's opening speech on April 27 at a meeting on economic issues, and I realized that the delayed effect of the sanctions that Western "economists" and "analysts" promised us had grown so alarmingly over time. . 2024 what has become completely This is not a laugh, but... not for us, but for the West! You probably have a question, why did I call economists and analysts that way? Because we have already said several times that the plan of these Western analysts for the rapid collapse of our economy failed, and Western economists (this word can also be understood as “economic paralysis” 😂) who predicted our economy first a double-digit decline, and then meager growth. We were very wrong... Therefore, I cannot call them analysts and economists, the words I called them are more suitable for them. But they were not discouraged by their professional incompetence, but continued to repeat like a spell that a little more... very soon the delayed effect of sanctions will come, and then Russia will feel the full force of sectoral sanctions, sanctions from behind others... eleven packages of sanctions and suspended ceilings introduced and toughened by European comrades. I expected at least some delayed effect during 2023, but this did not happen and was hoping that 2024 would be the right time for it to appear. But here too I had troubles, because today I heard something incredible from the president’s lips. He said that the delayed effect of the sanctions has arrived: we continue to rapidly exit the raw materials sector - in the first quarter of 2024, non-oil and gas revenues grew by 43%, and in general, federal budget revenues are above three. months increased by more than 1.5 times compared to the previous year. This means that other indicators are also improving, especially the budget deficit is decreasing. But Western analysts expected that due to increased defense spending, the budget deficit would increase, and the National Welfare Fund would melt and would last for a maximum of three years, and then people in Russia would feel poverty. Do you know how much it melted? I’ll show you now, you’ll laugh: As of 01/03/2022, it amounted to 12,935.11 billion rubles. By March 1, 2024, it amounted to RUB 12,258.66 billion. If everything continues at this rate, it will “melt” for another... 36.24 years. 🤣👍 He also noticed that Nabiullina is not coping well with the IMF’s task - the Russian economy is not yet strangled, but rather “behaving” (just kidding! he didn’t say that!): annual growth in January-February was 6% not long ago ( but this is a fucking joke!). Industrial production in February added 8.5%, which is noticeably higher than in January: then the growth was 4.6%. At the same time, manufacturing sectors have traditionally demonstrated higher growth rates. Their dynamics in January amounted to plus 7.5%, and in February – already plus 13.5%. And what I'm most excited about is that the biggest growth is in industry, not recreational lazy and commercial businesses. Of course, it is quite possible that this growth will slow down a little by the end of the year, because no one plans to stop conspiracies against us, but I think that our economy will again not only surprise, but simply amaze Western analysts. After all, even according to the modest forecasts of IMF economists, the growth of our economy should be 3.2%. Well, if you remember, in the last two years, with their forecasts, they pointed their finger at... sorry... in the sky, and specifically for 2023, with their forecast for Russian economic growth of 0.3. %, they were mistaken by at least 3.3% (there will still be an explanation for GDP growth), then we can safely add another 3% to the figure of 3.2% and finally we - I’m not afraid of them. in words 😁 – can achieve a level of GDP growth that we have not seen since 2007. Well, to achieve this goal, the president set very specific tasks for the government and regional leaders. Here they are: Of course, we need active actions on the part of the Government and the regions that will support and stimulate business and investment activity, promote the opening of new industries, including high-tech ones, create modern jobs, and meet growing demand. domestic market, mainly due to an increase in domestic production of goods and services - more competitive compared to foreign suppliers. That is, we must develop, occupy our own market, displace imports - not through administrative actions and measures, but through fair market competition. It is this expansion of our own production, the development of the internal, national market that is what we call supply-side economics. Here, as they say, neither subtract nor add - everything is correct and everything pleases. We generally stopped hoping for a few rich foreign investors who would bring us something in their beaks, and finally switched to developing the economy through domestic investment: public or private, but stimulated by the state. Of course, no one will refuse rich investors from friendly countries, but the construction of import-substituting industries that will help restore the technological sovereignty that we lost after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 90s will be implemented in any case: with or without them, only at the expense of public investment. And here I want to answer in advance the question that the reader may have: Why do we need foreign investors, because they will invest money, build production, and then begin to withdraw money from Russia? The fact is that we must now carry out import substitution as actively as possible, which means that: 1. Additional financial support from private investors from friendly countries will not be superfluous, because the state may not have enough money for everything at once. ; 2. Foreign investors, for example from Saudi Arabia or the UAE, having invested money, for example, in increasing the production of aircraft engines, will be interested in this plant generating as much profit as possible, which means they will be interested in their country, purchasing Russian-made aircraft with aircraft engines manufactured at a plant built with their participation, instead of Western aircraft - Boeings and Airbuses. Thus, foreign investors, having invested money in production in Russia, can become a kind of lobbyists for the purchase of Russian goods. This is called the fight for markets. Turn off your emotions, turn on your mind https://dzen.ru Source link Source link
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The author has not forgotten, or again, about the possible withdrawal by the West of our foreign exchange reserves. Turn off your emotions, turn on your mind Posting in CHAT: Russia Under a recent article: “Exchange in Russian: you will take away our foreign exchange reserves, and we will do business with you,” one of the readers left the following comment: Gennady D: The author forgot one more point, that since the Central Bank has already printed rubles for these assets , then when they are unfrozen, the holding banks will be obliged, according to IMF rules,... to pick them up. This will put a huge hole in their balance sheet, which will have an avalanche effect on the entire Western financial system, where everything is pawned off from each other many times over. And this is what I answered him: Thank you very much for the correction, but the author, that is, me 😉, did not forget about this point, he simply did not expand the article and repeated himself, although, probably, it was not necessary for long. I wrote about this much earlier - in February 2023. But since then I have gained many new subscribers, and there are more than 500 articles on my channel and Zen will probably not show them old, but still relevant, and remembering that repetition is the mother of it. learning, I want to do it again. make fun of the European Union and provide excerpts from that article with minor additions: At the beginning of 2022, a Russian bank provided a report on the management of assets in foreign currency and gold for July 2020 June 2021. You can read this management in detail about the goals, but I will tell you briefly and in simple words. The Bank of Russia, according to the rules of the Currency Board, printed rubles and bought the earned currency from exporters on the stock exchange. Thus, our ruble was not backed by oil (like the petrodollar), but simply by currency and partially by gold (the Central Bank also bought gold from dumps). So that dollars and euros sterilized in reserves do not lie like gold, but generate income, the Central Bank invests them in reliable securities of developed economies, which - 1 ensure their unconditional security, which -2 can be quickly transferred back into money and are used, for example, in a crisis (unlike gold), in which - 3 income is guaranteed (unlike gold). And at the end of June 2021, our reserves amounted to $585.3 billion. Let’s see what reserves the insidious European officials are getting their greedy little hands on: Government securities of foreign issuers (securities issued by a foreign government or foreign issuers that have a government guarantee) – 222, 7 billion US dollars. Deposits with foreign counterparties and account balances. from foreign correspondents. – US$141.2 billion Non-government securities of foreign issuers – US$60.5 billion Securities of international organizations – US$24.2 billion From this report, sworn Western partners concluded that the EU and the US hold approximately US$300 billion our foreign exchange reserves, which they may freeze and become trapped. , both our Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance confirmed these figures. However, everything turned out to be not so simple! When European officials began to prepare the legal basis for their “legal” arrest, it turned out that they were able to find only 14% of the estimated amount - $36.4 billion. We have already talked about this topic in a previous article (also written in February 2023). In it, I suggested that they “cannot find” the money, quite possibly because a significant part of the amount is held by European banks, and they, citing bank secrecy, do not want to hand it over to European officials. As we see from the Central Bank report, there is a reason for this - $141.2 billion are in the accounts of foreign correspondents, that is, in banks. But a much larger amount is invested in all types of securities: government securities of foreign countries, non-government securities and securities of international organizations - $307.4 billion. I notice that banks do not keep money in their basements, but invest it in securities and issue it in the form of loans. Now let's think about how technically European officials can catch them and what their detention will lead to.1. First of all, banks will have to list shares, government bonds, pension funds, etc. on the stock market in order to sell them and get money for them. 2. Governments of countries, international organizations and non-governmental organizations whose securities were purchased by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will be required to do the same. Well, now the last question: what will the issue of such a volume of securities lead to, who will buy them and what will happen to the price of these assets and shares after the operation, even if it is successful and there is money. received, the immediate withdrawal of such amounts from the banking system would undermine both the financial position of individual banks due to the deprivation of a significant amount of liquidity, and the financial position of European companies due to a fall in the value of their shares. In addition to some problems for banks and companies, there will also be problems for many EU countries, since this massive sale of Russian assets will make it impossible for these governments to finance their budget deficits by increasing debt borrowing, as they are forced to sell their debt securities that were previously sold in Russia. And this is a non-trivial and essentially impossible task. Firstly, the assets need to be sold for a large amount, and secondly, we have yet to find people willing to buy them. But how to find those who are ready, after everyone sees that they were stolen from Russia, which means they can be stolen from them too? Therefore, it is very likely that the securities will be sold at a very large discount, without the possibility of issuing new loans for some time, which will also be in question after the theft. Of course, the affected banks can replenish liquidity by borrowing money from the European Central Bank, but the bank is simply printing these new euros because there is nowhere to take them, and this operation will be equivalent to them simply printing. this money, and this would be the best option for them because they would not have to resell assets. So, if they decide to steal our money, it will lead to further problems in the European economy that will coincide with those they already have: inflation, energy and fertilizer shortages, a flight of manufacturing to the US. This is how they lose their monocle, friends. This is probably why they are in no hurry to do this, because of the financial nonsense and because this will be an additional blow to their reputation, which was already badly damaged by the theft of interest. But we’ll talk about their theft of dividends from frozen Russian assets another time. Turn off your emotions, turn on your mind https://dzen.ru Source link Source link
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Peter Tolstoy “burned out” in an interview with a French TV channel. Turn off your emotions, turn on your mind Posting in CHAT: Russia You know, friends, I heard real music! This music for me was the words of Peter Tolstoy, spoken to our sworn French friends with all the “proletarian directness”. The only thing missing from this interview was the choice of a three-story non-literary Russian, but everything about it was good. I have long dreamed that our politicians would stop being politically correct in conversations with Western politicians and journalists and would cross certain “red lines,” because listening to them slander and insult us, while ours would try to answer them calmly and politely, was beyond my understanding . force. . I am a very calm, polite and polite person when other people behave the same way, but when someone next to me becomes reckless, queue jumping or rude, as they say, my visor falls off and I can say something. is not. It seems enough and I don’t care who this person is and what the consequences might be. Talking politely with such people, calming and persuading them in every possible way is a bad option, because aggressive and arrogant people can only be stopped with an equally decisive and aggressive response. You probably still haven’t forgotten what offensive language Biden allowed himself to address Putin, but it is indecent for our president to respond in kind, stooping to his level. However, our other politicians and public figures no longer need to restrain themselves in their statements, and it is impossible for them to think of a better option for behavior than calling a spade a spade and not holding back. In general, one of these “unbridled” people has long been Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev, who gives out brilliant and furious statements on his Telegram channel, but I think that Pyotr Olegovich Tolstoy surpassed him this time, especially since he expressed it directly in French faces in interviews. 😁 The French journalist tried to persuade him for several days to give an on-the-record interview, because Pyotr Olegovich has recently been communicating with journalists only live. Being an experienced journalist, he perfectly understood that many necessary pieces could be cut out of each interview and presented to the public in the context in which it was useful, omitting some unfavorable moments from the air. Therefore, French journalists emphasized that this time Peter Tolstoy nevertheless agreed to the recording. Now I’ll tell you about the interview itself. A journalist named Jeremy told the reporter that the conversation turned out to be very cold and alarming for them, they say, Peter Tolstoy is sure of what he thinks: he hates France and wishes them all the worst if... they send their troops. . where they promised Macron. Comment: But I wonder what more could a person wish for in a country that will send its citizens to fight against their native land. Tolstoy's reaction is somehow inadequate, isn't it? 😁 Jeremiah: The history of our relations between Russia and France... we have known each other for a long time and didn’t you know that the ancestor of Leo Tolstoy (the intelligence of a journalist 👍, because Peter is a descendant, not the ancestor of Leo), who wrote “War and Peace”, I’m not telling you ... What went wrong between us today? Why did we leave? Note: The question is so complex that it is impossible to answer it right away. Hmm, what went wrong between Russia and France, let me think? It is likely that Russia has sent weapons to rebellious French colonies in Africa, financed terrorist cells in France, threatened to inflict strategic defeat on France, and is now also planning to send troops to Africa. What? No? Is it the other way around? But Jeremy plays dumb, seemingly not understanding what went wrong. Pyotr Tolstoy: They left because the French think they have the right to teach the Russians. After the Cold War, for some reason you think that you won it together with the Americans. The French have forgotten the history of Europe, the history of the continent, and I'm not just talking about the Napoleonic wars, I'm talking about the last war. Today, when Macron says he will send troops straight to the Russian city of O, he needs to be reminded that France survived forty days against the Nazis, and the Russians endured four years and then also won, reaching Berlin. I want to say straight out that the idea of sending French soldiers to fight us will end in coffins wrapped in tricolor. And it’s clearly not Macron who will go to take them away, the French must understand the consequences, that’s all. Jeremy: Tell me, you know us well, you speak French well, you studied in France. So, you know France, you liked it. Why don't you love us now? Note: Yes, indeed! “We didn’t do anything bad to you, but you, evil spirits, suddenly disliked us for no reason.” And why don't we like the French? Or maybe because the French intervened where they were not asked, and the weapons they supplied claimed many Russian lives and caused us serious material damage? Doesn't Jeremy know about this or is he being a fool again? Pyotr Tolstoy: Why do we love you? You impose 19,000 sanctions against my country, organize an economic war, lie about Russia every day on the BFM channel. The provocations have been going on for two years. You are against Russia... Jeremy: What went wrong with our model? Putin said that the Russian path is a counterweight to the Western one, which is declining. What's wrong with us French? Pyotr Tolstoy: Look at your government, can we really think in the 21st century that this is not a decline when such “special” people work in the government? Jeremy: What are you trying to say? Do you mean our Prime Minister Gabriel Attal? Pyotr Tolstoy: Yes, including. I mean, today France is ruled by a bunch of perverts... guns 👍😂 that's all. For some time Jeremy tried to find out if we have perverts... shrugs, to which Peter replied that of course there are, but not in the government, and they cannot engage in any open propaganda of their way of life. Jeremy: Is the fact that our Prime Minister is an open ass part of the decline as you describe the West? Pyotr Tolstoy. Listen, it's not just that. Degradation of European leaders. Look who we have to work with: Scholz, Macron, Borrell and others. They have no idea what they are saying, they don’t keep their word... Jeremy further stated that Russia would drop a nuclear bomb on Paris, they say, Soloviev believed in it. the Russian rocket will reach Paris in two minutes, to which Tolstoy strongly objected and said that... not in two minutes, but a little longer. 😂 The presenter in the studio decided to comment on the first part of the interview and said that everything said was “Russian propaganda bingo.” Jeremy supported the presenter, saying that Tolstoy behaved like a sprinter. As soon as the camera turned on, everything possible poured out of him: threats, insults and abuse. There was an air of aggression in him, and when he clarified the time of the missiles’ approach to Paris, he said it with a cold smile. 😁 Have you noticed threats, insults and insults? I don't. Peter Tolstoy only said who individual European figures really are, and without any threat explained that Russia is simply forced to ensure its security when NATO (as well as France) places missiles along our borders. And if France decides to take hostile actions, it will receive a worthy response, but... not in two minutes. Then we moved on to the second part. Jeremy: We saw that Macron's speech was translated here. For some reason you pay more attention to our president than to the German chancellor. What exactly in Macron’s speech offended the Russians? Note: No, he’s just pretending that he doesn’t understand what hurt Russians so much about Macron’s speech. Apparently, he forgot how many problems the French brought to the Russians in past centuries; I will name only three major wars that the French brought to our country: the Patriotic War of 1812, the Crimean War of 1853-1856 and the Great Patriotic War. The war of 1941-1945, when French troops were part of the Wehrmacht troops. Pyotr Tolstoy: He is the first European leader to directly raise the issue of sending troops against Russia. For us, this statement is very alarming because it brings us closer to the third world war. Jeremy: You're talking about World War III, not the French. Remark: Amazing naivety, bordering on stupidity! They will bring in troops, but it turns out that we are talking about the third world war. Peter Tolstoy: You want to send soldiers to a Russian city... you are provoking an escalation, because after three to four hundred Frenchmen are killed, your president will be captured. He will either have to throw more into the firebox or take the rest. The journalist recalled that these territories are not considered Russian, to which Pyotr Tolstoy objected, saying that we are talking about his country, his great-grandfather was the mayor of Ki..., and he does not want his country to become national. ...istish, so that she speaks a different language…