Why China is no longer the leader of the “new world” – Russia today Publication in CHAT: Russia The era of “emerging markets” is coming to an end, and the great “Asian tigers”, which were linked to the future of the world economy since the late 1980s and early 1990s, are increasingly like exhausted mules, barely dragging their feet. their. unbearable burden. China is becoming Japan… the beginning of the 1990s. Despite strengthening its position in the global world, the main leader of the new economy is clearly not coping, which gives rise to more and more analogies with the “tiger” of the first wave – Japan, which stood very close, but never ascended the global economic pedestal. While politicians and the media, holding their breath, talk about new heights, which, in their opinion, the Celestial Empire is about to conquer, economists are plunging into ever greater doubts. At first very timidly, and now quite confidently give the most unfavorable forecast for the Chinese economy – Japanization. © Boris Alekseev / Collage / Ridus.ru Experts compare the growing imbalances and unstable growth experienced by China today with the classic Japanese recession of the 1990s. Its onset is quite clearly demonstrated by the latest survey by the Bank of America Global Fund. Its results show that growth expectations in China are at an all-time low, while more than 18% of respondents overall expect the Chinese economy to weaken further. China is currently experiencing all the symptoms of a “balance sheet recession” – a long period of deflation, a housing slump and excessive debt. Like Japan, this follows a period of phenomenal growth. Analysts at Barclays Plc say China faces a unique set of problems that in some cases make it even worse off than Japan. These include a shrinking population, housing problems and an even more pronounced recession. Barclays highlights the striking similarities between the two countries. The housing sector’s interconnectedness with global demand for commodities such as steel and other raw materials means the problems are not confined to Beijing. Addressing China’s financial system’s problems is vital to the global economic outlook, says Tim Congdon of the Institute for International Monetary Studies. Chinese policymakers announced reforms in May to support the property sector, which appears to be showing some signs of improvement. But overstretched household balance sheets could hamper a broader improvement. Chinese household debt has more than doubled in the past decade, reaching 143% of disposable income in 2021. That means record-low interest rates no longer matter; without sufficient income, a family’s ability to borrow is limited. Whatever solution is found for Chinese households, it will be uneasy by default. Is it possible to help a sick person? © Lev Bubnov/collage/ridus.ru At least partially. Excess savings could be used to stimulate consumption. But most of these savings are in term deposits, which accounted for 96% of all household deposits in 2023, according to Barclays. Anecdotal evidence suggests that households prefer to place deposits with maturities of up to five years to lock in relatively “high” interest rates. It took Japan about three decades to emerge from its recession. The value of assets destroyed by the housing crisis is estimated at $9 trillion, twice the capitalization of China’s stock market. Meanwhile, China’s stock market looks very worrisome and resembles the Japanese crisis. There is no quick fix. Japan’s experience shows that it may take at least a decade to offset the private sector’s problems. Not All Emerging Markets Can Grow With the onset of China’s Japanization and the emergence of bleak prospects for its economy, the world is asking itself: does it make sense to treat emerging markets as a separate asset class at all? . ? The concept began as an inspirational branding element for the International Finance Corporation four decades ago. The idea was to encourage Western investment in developing countries by spreading risk across a range of markets and continents at different stages of development. The EM (emerging markets) label worked much better than the original plan to call their new product a “Third World Investment Fund.” China has long been the leading beacon for emerging markets, but that has begun to change since Beijing began attacking the private sector in 2021. The concept of uniting the disparate countries of Latin America, Eastern Europe, sub-Saharan Africa, etc. is hopelessly outdated, simply because they are all frozen at the same stage of development. Since 1988, only Israel and Portugal have made an uninterrupted transition from developing to developed countries. Taiwan, South Korea, and Poland may one day join them. For others, the window of opportunity finally appears to be closing. Instead of pursuing development, most governments and leaders have moved toward statist, authoritarian, and more recently, autarkic regimes. This transformation is depriving them of the opportunity to make the transition. This is all too clear in the case of China, which has changed its path and is already facing predictable problems. Will other developing countries follow its path? They will, but not all. Many of them no longer dance to China’s tune, and the opportunities they offer deserve the same treatment as their competitors in the developed world. Source link Source link
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why they move, what are the advantages and disadvantages of the two cities – September 19, 2024 – Russia today Publication in CHAT: Russia Omsk is a beautiful city Source: Kirill Bashinsky/NGS55.RU Remember the meme "Don't even think about leaving Omsk"? It clearly shows the attitude of many Omsk residents to their hometown as a place unsuitable for living. Moreover, some local residents still manage to leave Omsk. One of the most attractive cities for moving is Moscow. There are more opportunities, higher salaries and a milder climate. The desire to leave Omsk for the capital will not surprise anyone. But those who decided otherwise, to move from Moscow to a Siberian city, will probably be looked at with surprise. But there are such people. Expectations from the capital are usually very high, but they do not always coincide with reality, - NGS55.RU correspondent Ekaterina Shreiner talked to those who managed to live in two cities and still chose Omsk. About why they decided to return to the Siberian city and why it is loved at the psychology department of Omsk State University, but two years ago the girl was a student at Moscow University. She, like many other ambitious young Omsk residents, went to the capital to study. At first, she was not going to leave there. I just wanted to live in another city, until recently I did not know exactly where I would study, but I was interested in going to a new city. City. My priority was to move somewhere so as not to enter Omsk. Finally, the girl decided to go to the capital: there were many arguments in favor of this idea: - And at that time I was in a relationship in Moscow. I decided, why not just meet a young man there. And, of course, I understood that these were opportunities for any area of life, for hobbies. It is a huge city that I would endlessly study, walk and look at. Everyone understands perfectly well what Moscow is and why everyone wants to go there. Moreover, the only specialized university in tourism is based there, and I decided that I wanted to study this special subject. I simply had no choice but to go there. Polina lived in Moscow for about two years, although she began to think about returning to Omsk in her first year. The university did not live up to expectations, and Moscow life with its crazy pace was very tiring. As a result, the girl took the documents from the capital's university and entered another faculty in her hometown. She has never regretted her decision. The girl likes to come to Moscow as a tourist Source: provided by Polina Kitaeva After returning, Polina began to pay attention to the advantages of Omsk, which she had not even thought about before: - In general, as it turned out, I like it. life in Omsk, because it is a city of a million and there are many places where you can spend time and do something. The city has opportunities. In addition, getting somewhere is not such a huge investment of time and energy. The pace of life here is calmer, and this makes you more comfortable. Moscow, according to Polina, wins in terms of tourism. From there, it is much easier to go to Europe or to large cities of Russia than from Omsk. And yet, the girl is not thinking about moving to the capital yet. She loves this city, but as a tourist. Polina loves Omsk very much Source: Polina Kitaeva/t.me Now Polina travels a lot, visits different cities, but always returns home happy. "They evicted me from a rented apartment in the seventh month of pregnancy" Housing prices in the capital are steep Source: provided by Alina Pilipenko Alina and her husband moved to Moscow a little over a year ago. At first, the couple planned to stay in the capital forever and take out a mortgage, but they had big problems with housing. So they returned to Omsk: - Mortgage rates only increased each time. We were evicted from a rented apartment when I was seven months pregnant. In the end, we decided to move to Omsk so that we could give birth here in peace. Besides, the apartment where I am registered is empty. The girl is thinking about moving to Moscow again, but not earlier than in a few years, when the future child grows up a little. The main reason for this decision is Alina and her husband's close people, most of whom live in the capital. The girl also appreciates Moscow for its relatively mild climate and environmental situation, which is better than in Omsk. The girl is still thinking about returning to Moscow. Source: Alina Pilipenko Alina considers long distances and traffic jams to be the main disadvantages. capital If you come there as a tourist one day, you will still be able to experience it. But every day the road takes several hours - this is not very pleasant - Moscow is a one-day city. To visit any place, you will have to spend the whole day. Very long distances and very fast traffic on the roads, in Omsk in this regard, there are big time savings. From the girl's point of view, Moscow has other disadvantages: prices and a large number of unscrupulous people. - Buying apartments in Moscow is very expensive, in the Moscow region they are also unreasonably expensive. It seemed to me that the people there are selfish, sometimes cruel, and it is easy to meet such people. You need to choose a house or apartment very carefully. Look at the people there, with whom you will work, carefully study the contracts. In Moscow, prices in cafes and restaurants will naturally be higher than in Omsk. We completely forgot that here (in Omsk - editor's note) such great prices, it's cool. Now Alina is enjoying a measured life in her hometown: after a year in the capital, she managed to miss it. The girl is expecting a child, preparing for motherhood, meeting with friends, walking and visiting her favorite places in Omsk. She happily goes to the Anytime cafe, which is not in Moscow, and also loves the Green Island Park. According to the girl, it has changed noticeably in a year. A little over a month ago, NGS55.RU correspondent Maria Nosenko asked Omsk residents why they love their city. Some of the answers may surprise you. Source link Source link
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Pine nuts ripen in the Pechenga region – Russia today Publication in CHAT: Russia News | 18 09 2024, 22:00 | SeverPost Telegram / "Fishing in the Murmansk Region" Pine nuts have ripened near Pechenga. The author of the message notes that pine nuts have ripened for the first time since the beginning of the season. At the same time, there is a shortage of mushrooms in the surrounding forests, according to subscribers of the Telegram channel "Fishing in the Murmansk Region". Let us recall that the 77-year-old mushroom picker from Apatity was searched for all night. Read also: Northerners observed three celestial phenomena at the same time To be the first to know the main news and the most important events of the day, subscribe to our Telegram channel. Source link Source link
