Why there won’t be enough oil money for everyone, “free” Turkish gas and the lifting of US banking sanctions. Oleg Makarenko Posting in CHAT: Russia 1. The Zen channel of a petroleum engineer's blog explores the myth that Russians could live comfortably on oil and gas income if they weren't fleeced by "greedy officials" (link): Oil and gas leasing is one of the sweetest things in Manila. dreams of our compatriots who love freedom. They firmly believe that Russia is the richest country in the world in terms of resources, they simply steal everything from us, so the people get nothing. And now we receive a colossal amount of money, we just need to divide it equally - and everyone will receive hundreds of thousands of dollars in American bills, and then we will definitely live. And they cite as an example the countries of the Persian Gulf, where this rent is expected to be paid. Sometimes very decent amounts appear; they say that every Arab from these places receives many thousands and thousands of dollars into his personal account, sometimes their amount reaches an incredible 30 thousand dollars a year. But I am an old cynic, a skeptic and an unbeliever, so I will take the trouble to understand this issue. First, let's start with oil production in general. Russia is one of the leaders in oil production in the world. We are second in its production after the USA. But we must proceed from the fact that in this world it is not absolute, but relative values that rule. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account not the amount of money received from the sale of a resource, but its distribution per capita and unit of territory. Let's take what we have the most in the world - natural gas. Our country contains in its depths 50.279 trillion cubic meters, 24.38% of the world's reserves. Let's compare with Turkmenistan, which ranks fifth in terms of reserves - 12.177 trillion cubic meters, 5.91%. Based on the area of the country, it turns out that per 1 square kilometer of area we produce 2.94 million cubic meters of gas. Sounds impressive. Let us now recalculate the reserves of Turkmen gas to the area of Turkmenistan. But it turns out that there are 19.89 million cubic meters of gas per kilometer of this country’s territory! 6.67 times more. What if we compare it with Qatar, whose area is only 11.86 thousand square kilometers and gas reserves are 23.846 trillion cubic meters? It turns out that per kilometer of Qatar's area there are more than 2010 billion cubic meters of gas. If we take oil exports, Russia exports 1.6 tons of oil per person per year. Norway produces 15 tons per person per year! Do you understand the difference? Almost ten times more. According to this indicator, it ranks second in the world, ahead of both the UAE and Saudi Arabia. What can I say, neighboring Kazakhstan exports only 67.7 million tons per year versus 227.6 million tons exported from Russia. And at the same time, per capita there are 3.4 tons, more than twice as much. As you can see, we produce a lot of oil. But if we distribute it per capita and unit of area, it will be several times less than in most countries that produce it in export volumes. Therefore, there will not be that much money per person. The population of Russia in 2019 was 146.7 million people, 3.81 tons of oil per person per year. The average density of Ural oil floats, for calculation we will take the average of 0.87 g/cm3. Thus, 27.54 barrels of oil were sold per Russian that year. The average dollar exchange rate in 2019 was 64.61 rubles, and the average price of a barrel was $63.59. Simple arithmetic tells us that in 2019, Russians received $776.43 or 50,165 rubles from oil sales. The amount, as we see, is not impressive, and we are talking about money received without taking into account the cost of oil and the profitability of the company. Someone has to organize it, maintain it and try to make it work, which of course they will want to pay for. And as a result, the income will become even less, I think, no less than a quarter, or even a third. If we take our country’s oil and gas revenues for 2022 with a record profit of 12.4 trillion rubles, then the equal distribution among citizens was simply “incredible” money - 82 thousand rubles for the year. 6.8 thousand rubles per month. And this is a third of all income, another two-thirds can be distributed - but the question will arise, how will our country exist? After all, in Russia our citizens also receive a share of income from oil and gas. Just in a different form. We do not give money into hands, but redistribute it in other ways. Approximately the same system exists in the Gulf countries. Contrary to urban legends and stories, no one gives money there as an annual fee. But there are deductions (about $200 per month) per child per month, which he receives with interest upon reaching adulthood. The state pays for higher education, and not just at home. Gives a wedding gift and helps pay the mortgage. He does not give an interest-free loan, as they say in sweet posters, but pays part of the interest, because the other is paid by the person himself to the Islamic bank. We have approximately the same system in all types of preferential loan programs. Some of our money goes into the National Welfare Fund... Which is spent during a crisis to soften the blow. Part of the funds goes to social services - payment of pensions, maternity capital, preferential mortgage programs, etc. Here everyone can get an education for free, but this is a huge expense. 2. And here is an analysis of the myth that Turkey supposedly provides free gas supplies to its citizens, and gas-rich Russia “cannot afford it” (link): About a year ago, in the second half of April, all newspapers and blogs literally thought that the chains are broken. The reason for this was the promise of the populist Turkish presidential candidate Erdogan to distribute free gas to the Turks. This was timed to coincide with the commissioning of another “Gazprom killer” - the Sakarya field on the Black Sea shelf. what can you say? Firstly, the deposit's reserves are not so large. In addition, we are talking about general, non-recoverable reserves, of which there are always fewer, because it is simply impossible to extract the entire resource. Secondly, the figure only sounds impressive to the average person. But in fact, this is not Yamburg or Urengoy with their multi-billion dollar reserves. According to the classification of gas fields, it is classified as large. Not a giant, not a supergiant, just big. In Russia, before the latest events, an average of 64 billion cubic meters of gas was produced per month (!!!). Sakarya's reserves would be enough even for 8 months of such exploitation. But the pipe from one well (others were not drilled) was installed last year. And at its opening, Recep Teyp Erdogan promised that next year the Turks will receive gas for free. This caused a wave of joy among the Turks and indignation among us. Everything is as usual (screenshot 1, screenshot 2). People who know how to think and master mathematics even at an arithmetic level understand that making a promise does not mean getting married. And if it went somewhere, it means it ended up somewhere else. Firstly, the gas supplied through the first stage of the gas pipeline will not be enough to supply the Turks with gas. It supplies only 10 million cubic meters of gas per year, that is, no more than 0.35 billion cubic meters. But only about 15 billion cubic meters are required annually for domestic needs. Secondly, who will pay for all this? Of course, the Turks will pay for this attraction with unprecedented generosity. As it turned out in practice, no one is going to supply gas to the Turks for free for a whole year. And it was decided to allocate only 25 m3 of gas per household per month. Let's face it - it's not enough. Also, this only works in homes that have gas. There are an absolute minority of these in the country; the majority use gas cylinders with a mixture of propane and butane. They don't get anything for free. But that's not the main thing. Immediately after the elections, the state gas pipeline company BOTAŞ made a gift to the “dear Turks” - it significantly increased the cost of gas for homes - by 30%, and for generation - by 16%. At the same time, gas tariffs for industry immediately increased by 40%. Something tells me that the cost of good shows with free gas is more than worth it. And in January of this year there was another price increase. According to the new tariffs, tariffs for the population increased by 25%, for the industrial sector - by 50%, for electricity producers - by 15%. In six months, an increase of 55%. Erdogan could give fifty cubic meters of gas for free with such a rise in prices, they would also pay off well and easily; 3.…
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What Yekaterinburg residents spend money on: residents openly talked about their income Posting in CHAT: Russia Sverdlovskstat regularly publishes data on wage growth. In Yekaterinburg, for example, the average salary increased by 16.5%, reaching 84.6 thousand rubles by the end of 2023. However, prices for goods and services are also rising rapidly. Residents of the Sverdlovsk region told how much money they actually spend per month. Residents of Yekaterinburg shared what they spend the most money on. The main expenses, as expected, were food, mortgage and loans - A family of 4 people spends 150 thousand per month: 30 thousand on food, the rest on mortgage. utilities, wards, kindergarten, dentistry, medications and tests. We don’t have luxury,” one of the residents told the E1.RU portal. Other examples of expenses look like this: “50 thousand for food, 18 thousand for a mortgage, 12 thousand for utilities, 12 thousand for a car loan. , 9 thousand for the next loan, 10 thousand for the further education of the child, 10 thousand for gasoline - 40 thousand for gasoline, 10 thousand for utilities, the rest - another 20 thousand from Yekaterinburg. Use a special app to track your budget - We kept an accurate budget, accounting for every cent. In general, food for two costs 30 thousand, for animals - 6 thousand, for yourself - 10 thousand, plus the cost of mortgages and loans. For some people, it has become mandatory to save significant sums for renovation and decoration of the apartment, as well as for education and children. Many people save on vacations, cosmetics and clothes. Also, some respondents note that significant funds are spent on children, including studies, classes, tutors and additional education - Our main expenses are for our 18-year-old daughter: studies, clothes. cosmetics, contact lenses, concerts, etc. The second major expense item is the dacha. Source link Source link
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In Buryatia, an employee of a gold mining company transferred money to scammers for three months Posting in CHAT: Russia A resident of the Selenginsky district believed that he could easily increase his capital, and was left without savings. For three months, the 43-year-old man transferred funds to the scammers. An excavator operator, while on duty in the Magadan region, saw an advertisement for “easy money” on the Internet. He submitted an application on this site and downloaded the application using the link provided. On the same day, he was contacted by an unknown person who introduced himself as an investment manager. During the conversation, the scam convinced him to start investing supposedly in precious metals and currencies, promising a large return on investment. As a result, a resident of the republic invested all his saved money in this, then took out several microloans and borrowed money from friends. After some time, when the man wanted to withdraw his benefits, the scammers demanded more money for their transfer. At the instructions of the scammers, the naive man transferred about 5 million rubles to the indicated accounts. The employee on duty delivered money to a fictitious brokerage account from January 30 to April 12. When the man realized that he would not benefit, and the “investment managers” stopped communicating, he realized that he had become a victim of scammers and contacted the police. A criminal case has been initiated regarding fraud on an especially large scale. Source link Source link