What will happen to the ruble exchange rate and will the dollar fall below 90 – May 28, 2024 – Russia today Posting in CHAT: Russia The state does not allow the ruble to fall completely Source: Oleg Fedorov / CHITA.RU The Russian currency has been showing constant strengthening over the past weeks. After the long May holidays, the dollar dropped below 91 rubles, reaching its lowest level since February of this year. “The key factor supporting the ruble is the high level of export flows, ensuring the influx of currency into the country and its sale. currencies from large companies for dividends,” Nikolai Pereslavsky, head of the economic research department of the financial company, explained to the MSK1 journalist. What to expect during the summer holidays The decline in demand for foreign currency in Russia occurred against the backdrop of a fall in volumes, says Pavel Zhuravlev, head of investment analysis for the first quarter of 2024. At the same time, March data show a decrease in import volumes by 20%. Also according to the customs service of Russia’s main trading partner, China. The volume of exports of goods from China to Russia in April decreased by 10.2% compared to March, Zhuravlev explains why one should not prematurely rejoice at the strengthening of the ruble. — The fall in imports is largely due to the complication of foreign exchange payments amid increasing sanctions pressure on Turkish and Chinese banks from the United States. Financial analyst Nikolai Mozhenkov, president of the closed club of the Conclave Prize, tells MSK1.RU. The dollar exchange rate will remain in the range of 85–95 rubles. — It has been in this range since the beginning of the year. This dollar exchange rate is convenient for the financial system, for exporters, for business,” says Mozhenkov. – Predictions that the ruble would weaken after the elections did not come true. The elections and inauguration have passed, but our currency is still at the same level. The same can be said about the euro, which correlates with the American currency: it will remain in the same corridor of 95-100 rubles, since the strengthening of the ruble was due to lower inflation and the strict monetary policy of the Central Bank, which makes ruble assets more attractive for investors, ordinary Russians It is also worth paying attention to ruble assets. For example, if you have 100 thousand rubles, you can buy, for example, only 1058 dollars from Tinkoff Bank, 1075 dollars from Alfa-Bank, 1084 dollars from VTB and 1097 dollars from Sberbank. However, if you put this money in a bank for a deposit period of seven months at 16%, then by the end of December you will receive more than 109 thousand rubles. Thus, for investments in foreign currency to pay off, the dollar exchange rate must rise above 100 rubles by the end of the year. year But you also have to consider the fees that banks charge when buying and selling currencies. The ruble is unpredictable, and the currency is growing completely unpredictably. It can be influenced by various factors, both internal and external. Therefore, investors are advised to carefully analyze the market situation and make informed decisions. If the currency rises above the specified range or falls below it, the government and the Central Bank will simply take appropriate measures, as was previously the case with the key index and the rule on the sale of foreign earnings. The charts clearly show support levels for the dollar - 90 rubles, for the euro - 97.5 rubles, for the yuan - 12.5 rubles, says Pereslavsky. - In my opinion, the market will maintain these levels due to the following circumstances: the fall in European oil and the increase in demand for foreign currency from Russian importers - In June, the main currencies (dollar, euro and yuan) will strengthen. by 4–5%, approaching the upper price corridor that has formed over the past 2 months. The dollar will strengthen to 93-94 rubles, the euro to about 100 rubles, the yuan to 12.75 rubles, Zhuravlev predicts. “And if difficulties with calculations continue, it may strengthen to values below 90 rubles per dollar,” Mozhenkov suggests looking at the special yuan, which is strengthening. This currency is pegged to the dollar, but is influenced by a number of internal factors. : an increase in the share of the Chinese currency in payments (including international ones) and the overall growth of the Chinese economy. At the same time, expectations associated with the US presidential elections in November 2024 bring a negative note - in the case of Donald Trump. If Trump wins, the resumption of “trade wars” between America and China is possible, Mozhenkov believes, since world currencies, be it the ruble, yuan or dollar, depend on big politics. Source link Source link