Excellent first-class report by journalist Marat Khairullin from February 20-26, 2024. The main border today, of course, is the southern Donetsk direction. And the most important section is from Avdeevka to Novomikhailovka. Let me remind you that the main strategic goal of the large-scale operation that unfolded here in the fall is the destruction of the strongest enemy group to date – “Tavricheskaya”. In fact, over 5 months of continuous fighting (conventionally, from October 2023), the size of this group was reduced by almost half. At the time the fighting began, there were about 50 brigades in “Tavricheskaya” (commanded by General Tarnavsky, one of the most experienced Nazis in the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine). Now there are less than 30 left in service. According to front-line intelligence, most of the brigades remaining in service are less than 50 percent staffed. The 5 most elite enemy brigades were withdrawn for reorganization. In addition, three brigades (regiments) of Zelensky’s personal reserve were practically destroyed (mainly GUR special forces and presidential security regiments). The losses in technology are still incalculable. Until now, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have practically not used tanks and armored personnel carriers, trying to gain a foothold on new borders. The Avdeevka operation caused very serious injuries to the animal. However, in strategic terms, this was only the first step – we won the debut outright. Let me remind you what this means in a chess sense: fight for the center, quickly place pieces and ensure the protection of the king. If we take the direction of Southern Donetsk as a whole, then Avdeevka is precisely the center of the field, control over which ensures the victorious development of the entire party. Now our army is actively placing figures in the entire direction from Novomikhailovka in the south to Avdievka in the north. Ensuring the “protection of the king” means, of course, complete liberation from the blockade of the Donetsk direction. Continuing the chess analogy, we now see how the opening quickly turns into the middlegame. Let’s record the success already achieved, evaluate it and try to understand (guess) what tasks our army will solve at this stage. And at the same time, we will evaluate the chances of dill to show at least a significant game against our general grandmasters. After the fall of Severny, it is necessary to pay attention to the complex of Ukrop defensive structures between Severny and Pervomaisky. So that the reader understands, in the fields between these two villages there are about a hundred dill fortresses in the forest plantations. In which, according to various estimates, from one and a half to two thousand dill sit continuously. We saw something similar a week ago in a field in the so-called triangle between the Northern military unit and Avdeevka. According to our calculations, there were about a thousand dill sitting there. And they ran away very quickly, essentially self-destructing along the way, as soon as we took Avdeevka and entered Koksokhim. In other words, as soon as the main fortified area on which Ukrainian field fortifications are based falls, they abandon them. This is understandable – such masses cannot fight in an open field on their own, without relying on some conditional fortress (in this case it was Avdeevka). Issues of rotation and supply immediately arise. Avdeevka ledge So, after the liberation of Avdeevka, our army began to actively advance along the entire northern side of the Donetsk front, successfully liberating important settlements that form the conditionally second line of defense of Dill after Avdeevka. This, as I already said, is the Berdich-Orlovka-Tonenkoye-Pervomayskoye line. This line of defense of the Ukrainians is based on Pervomaisky and Tonenkoy. And, if we take it more broadly, now the most important border for Ukrainians is Orlovka-Umanskoye-Yasnobrodovka-Netailovo-Pervomaiskoye. Ukrainians are now desperately trying to gain a foothold on this path. Orlovka and Tonenkoye will most likely fall in the coming days, if not hours, and then the fate of the entire line will be decided – and this, obviously, will not last long either. Taking this line can be considered the first chapter of the middlegame in this direction. The next step will be access to the third line of defense of the Ukrainians – the Ocheretino-Novoselovka-Karlovskoye Reservoir line. Here, too, there is a chain of heights on which the Ukrainians will try to gain a foothold. But the attack on this line will most likely begin towards the end of this chess game. Krasnogorovsky cauldron The next task in the middlegame will be the capture of the two most important fortified areas of the southern part of the Donetsk Front – one of them is Krasnogorovka. Second Novomikhailovka. Ours have already entered Krasnogorovka from the direction of Marinka. A large section (20 km) of the Donetsk front from Pervomaisky to Maryinka hangs over Krasnogorovka. As soon as Pervomayskoe and Krasnohorivka are taken, the Ukrainians will most likely abandon their field fortifications and flee. As I said before, they cannot fight in the open field without the support of large fortresses. Novomikhailovka for a snack And the third step is, of course, Novomikhailovka – take the village and go out on both sides to Konstantinovka. At this point, the middlegame can be considered over and the game will move into the endgame. Which promises to be stormy and fast in this direction. Most likely, this part of the operation to liberate Donetsk will continue faster than the breakthrough of the Avdeevsky line. Avdeevka was the strongest line, and we destroyed the best forces of dill here. We have already concentrated enormous forces on the Donetsk Front to eliminate the Avdeevka junction – from artillery to aviation. And this potential has been preserved, but the potential of Ukrainians in this area has been largely destroyed. They have to draw new strength, and this despite the fact that they still need to be located somewhere. There is an interesting point here that is clearly visible to those who are in the active army. Ukrainians are trying to make up for the lack of art with kamikaze drones. And this in recent months has simply provoked a rapid increase in production in our existing divisions of our own workshops for the production of compact silencers for these drones (tell me what they are called correctly). Let me remind you that a few months ago I wrote about how our battalions are literally becoming overgrown with kamikaze production workshops. And we very soon surpassed ukrov in this indicator. Educated personnel and our own technological and logistics chains appeared. By the way, my dear readers, largely thanks to your invaluable help. Now these workshops (I emphasize that they are in every rifle battalion, at least in our brigade) are simply expanding, already trained guys are beginning to massively control the new production. And the day is not far off when every vehicle, every group of fighters, every position will be equipped with an individual station. Moreover, for example, we are already installing these conditional dampers, which automatically select the frequency for drones launched by dill. This is a wonderful example of self-organization of our army with mass support of the people. The antidote to kamikaze drones has already been found, and mass deliveries of such systems by our industry are underway. In other words, the Ukrainians should not hope that they can stop our advance with clouds of improvised drones. As they say, Russian ingenuity always puts something in every thin bolt. All that the Ukrainian Armed Forces can now show is nothing more than convulsions. Marat Khairullinhttps://vk.com/@voenkorkhayrullin
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