The Central Bank raised the key rate to 19% – why, reasons, forecasts – September 13, 2024 Publication in CHAT: Russia Experts expect the key rate to be raised to 20% in October Source: Dmitry Tolstosheev/MSK1 On September 13, the Central Bank raised the key rate again. This time by 100 basis points, to 19% per annum. The Central Bank admitted that it could increase this figure at the next meeting, on October 25. Why the key rate was raised - Annual inflation by the end of 2024 will most likely exceed the July forecast range of 6.5-7%. The growth of domestic demand still significantly exceeds the capacity to expand the supply of goods and services. Further tightening of monetary policy is necessary to resume the deflation process, reduce inflation expectations, and ensure that inflation returns to the target in 2025, the Central Bank said in a statement. The key indicator is the interest rate at which the Central Bank issues loans. commercial banks. Regulation of this indicator is one of the instruments of the state monetary policy, the purpose of which is to contain or increase inflation, as well as stimulate economic growth. The Central Bank predicts that, given the implemented monetary policy, annual inflation will increase. will fall to 4-4.5% in 2025 and remain close to 4% in the future. The Central Bank noted that consumer activity, despite some slowdown, remains high. This is mainly supported by the growth of household incomes. They also added that there remains a serious shortage of labor, especially in the manufacturing industries. What do the experts say? Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasiliev explains that inflation exceeds the Central Bank's forecast for the end of this year by 6.5-7%. This creates risks that inflation will not slow down to the target of 4% by the end of 2025 and therefore requires further tightening of monetary policy. The expert says that by tightening monetary policy, the Bank of Russia is seeking to cool the still high pace of lending and reduce . excessive demand in the economy will lead to a slowdown in consumer prices and return inflation to the target level. - There are risks that inflation may remain elevated for a long time. Among them are a shortage of personnel in the labor market and rapid wage growth, rising inflation expectations, an upward deviation of the economy from the trajectory of balanced growth, uncertainty with geopolitics, the ruble exchange rate and imports, notes Sergey Konygin, senior economist at the Sinara investment bank, notes that the decision to raise the rate was dictated by two factors. The first is a significant deviation of the economy from balanced growth according to July data. Secondly, there are risks of not achieving the inflation target of 4% in 2025 and the risk of exceeding the forecast for this year. At the same time, today's decision left the budget for 2025-2027, data on which will be available later. It is already clear that they also create inflation risks due to the growth of costs,” added Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS “World of Investments,” and believes that the increase in the Central Bank rate and the regulator’s continued tough rhetoric were justified. pessimistic expectations. — The impact of the exchange rate on financial markets is negative. Of course, many things were already in price and such a collapse as in recent months is not expected, but now there are fewer and fewer drivers for a rapid recovery of shares and OFZs. For the ruble, the decision is neutral, only at the moment there may be a jump in volatility,” he notes, — what will happen to rates and loans? Sovcombank believes that after raising the key rate from 18% to 19%, rates on deposits and loans (mortgage, consumer, corporate) will grow by a comparable amount. — Considering our expectations of a 100 bp increase in the key rate to 20%, deposit and loan rates are likely to continue growing in October. in October-November, so we believe that it is better to take out a loan now than after the probable increase in the key rate. In general, depositors and borrowers should be prepared for the fact that this period of tight monetary policy may be long. , warns Vasiliev Zeltser that rates in the deposit market follow the Central Bank rate. According to him, many banks have raised deposit rates even earlier than planned. He predicts that credit funds will remain expensive in the coming months. to the key rate further? Do experts predict a further increase in the key rate? Sovcombank expects the key rate to be increased on October 25 to 20%. They believe that in the baseline scenario, the Central Bank will keep the rate at this level for about six months. In a risky situation, it will increase to 21-22%. That is, if inflation is higher than 8% by the end of the year. The last time the Central Bank raised the key rate was at the end of July. Then it happened for the first time since December 2023. The Central Bank talks a lot about inflation and is trying to slow it down. But what is inflation and how it affects us all, read in this article. Source link Source link
